Israel

[izne1home]

It looks like Israel is mounting up for what is sure to be brutal urban warfare.  The IDF is a different breed.  This is existential Biblical proportion stuff.  Sweeping the streets of the most densely populated area in the world, where Hamas is deeply rooted, might be a little harder than it sounds. 

Most of the world is cheering Israel on today, but I wonder how long it will tolerate photos of dead Palestinian children or mothers wailing in the streets.  I woke up this morning with the news showing large buildings in Gaza virtually disappearing in massive explosions.  I got a little excited, like Sunday night with the Niners hammered the suckhass Cowboys.

But then they showed a Palestinian girl around 5, sitting in an ambulance with her father.  Both had sheer terror on their face as the father was holding the body of another child, presumably dead.  The little girl's eyes reminded me of my 5-year-old granddaughter, and something seized up inside of me.

It's unfortunate that Hamas and other terrorists hide behind human shields.  It's also unfortunate that they raid villages and decapitate children.  With these sorts of atrocities, Hamas must be eliminated and Israel will not throttle back.  It can't throttle back now. 

Interestingly, in the past, the IDF would send 'roof knocks' before shelling a building, by sending a relatively harmless round onto the targeted building which served as a warning that a more lethal missile was coming.  For now, the IDF has dispatched with that formality.

And what to do about the hostages?  It already sounds like the Israeli families are giving them up as martyrs.  If I was kidnapped, I'd want the IDF special forces coming after me, and I'm sure they will try.  But Israel won't let the tail wag the dog.  The US might not be so quick to give up its hostages.  I'd love to be a fly on the wall of those strategy meetings.

Any thoughts?

[Coastfan]

Agreed on the international governments/peoples supporting Israel's response. The images are heartbreaking. Israel must defend itself. Palestine must distance itself from Hamas. It appears that Hamas has a stranglehold on Palestinian territory/peoples, very similar to Isis having a stranglehold on Afghanistan back in 2001 (and, appears again in the present). I am sure that it is much more nuanced than how it all appears, but I do know that there will not be peace in this region with the terrorist groups. Put simply, Islamic terrorist groups wants the eradication of the Israel state and its people. This war, combined with the war in Ukraine, has the real potential of exploding into a much larger conflict.

I must say, I have really appreciated the words President Biden has stated publicly. He has appeared clear, concise, and coherent. The world is watching.

[TeddyKGB]

I must say, I have really appreciated the words President Biden has stated publicly. He has appeared clear, concise, and coherent. The world is watching.

this has to be a joke or sarcasm

[Coastfan]

No, I was being serious. He was very clear in calling the actions by Hamas evil. That word carries a lot of weight. He moved the USS Gerald Ford into a strategic position north of Israel. By doing so, he communicated to the world that we are supporting Israel. He also used the word "don't" when speaking to any country attempting to get involved.

Now, words are meaningless if there are no actions, but it is important to recognize when a sitting president, who has comically struggled to put much of anything coherent together when speaking to the media, be very clear with his words in calling out the actions of Hamas and to our international threats that we mean business. I applaud him for that.

[izne1home]

No, I was being serious. He was very clear in calling the actions by Hamas evil. That word carries a lot of weight. He moved the USS Gerald Ford into a strategic position north of Israel. By doing so, he communicated to the world that we are supporting Israel. He also used the word "don't" when speaking to any country attempting to get involved.

Now, words are meaningless if there are no actions, but it is important to recognize when a sitting president, who has comically struggled to put much of anything coherent together when speaking to the media, be very clear with his words in calling out the actions of Hamas and to our international threats that we mean business. I applaud him for that.

Scripted Biden is a wreck.  Sits around like a house plant.  But angry adrenalin-driven Biden is much better, relatively.  With the Afghanistan withdrawal, forfeiture of weapons, and the recent release of funds to Iran looming in the background, Biden must be crystal clear and strong.  So far, he has pulled it off.  The GOP, by contrast, looks pitifully inept. 

[eylchamps]

I saw the protest on Stockdale and California
I'm not familiar with all the stuff in the middle east but, when you attack someone and then they retaliate with more power and might, why do you cry about it?
start a fight and then cry when you get your butt beat. Makes no sense
But, those cowards are using children, women, hospital and schools as shields and hiding places. It's time for the Palestine people to rise up against those thugs. 
Israel is doing what it can to destroy the thugs and are being ripped for it.

[izne1home]

I heard an analyst say that Israel is fighting the war logically.  As long as they stay with logic, it might prevail.  But, if it's knees weaken and the war is fought emotionally, Israel will fail.  That is what Hamas is counting on.

That is probably also what Hitler was relying on when Britain and the US was carpet-bombing Germany - that the US couldn't stomach the brutal reality halfway around the world.  If we had 500 video angles of every bomb dropped during WWII, with pictures of dismembered German children, we might have reached an accord with Hitler. 

We need to brace ourselves.  Thousands will die in this eradication.  The hostages are probably as good as dead.  We need to take that leverage away from terrorists.  It might be easier for the hostages and their families to die quickly in a bunker bomb blast than to have their deaths broadcast around the world.  Otherwise, we are putting huge targets on Americans around the world.

[izne1home]

With all the hostage negotiation and humanitarian delays, a few things are happening.

1.  Terrorists worldwide are emboldened,
2.  Hamas is regrouping,
2.  We are putting high prices on the heads of potential US hostages worldwide, and most importantly,
2.  Israel's window of staging a legitimate incursion is shrinking. 

[CWClassof2007]

If Israel really wanted to destroy the Gaza Strip to drive out Hamas they could. But unlike Hamas & their allies they are about collateral damage.

[izne1home]

If Israel really wanted to destroy the Gaza Strip to drive out Hamas they could. But unlike Hamas & their allies they are about collateral damage.

Understood, but the window is closing.  If Israel throttles down, it is difficult to throttle back up. 

[BallGuy]

In many ways, I think the lack of info on what the military plans are to eradicate Hamas is a good thing. These are top secret stuff, with massive implications. Folks like us shouldn't have any idea what the plans are. I get the concerns:
1.  Terrorists worldwide are emboldened,
2.  Hamas is regrouping,
2.  We are putting high prices on the heads of potential US hostages worldwide, and most importantly,
2.  Israel's window of staging a legitimate incursion is shrinking.

but really, we shouldn't know any of the plans to solve this. More "thoughts and prayers" and just hope right thing happens, knowing that bad things inevitably will take their wins along the way. It's similar to me second guessing any NFL coach's decision from the couch, knowing they have forgotten more about football than I know. It does make for some good conjecture tho

[izne1home]

I'm not second-guessing.  Just pointing out that over time, the international condemnation will grow and the US will qualify its support.

[Timmy Winn]

I'm not second-guessing.  Just pointing out that over time, the international condemnation will grow and the US will qualify its support.

The condemnation will come from nations unwilling or unable to fight while the nations with nukes and a bone to pick with America are lining up against Israel. China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are just waiting for US to get more involved.  I wonder what the global support for Israel will actually look like if this turns into a ground game? Anyway you cut it US is going to carry a lot of the weight.

[BallGuy]

I'm not second-guessing.  Just pointing out that over time, the international condemnation will grow and the US will qualify its support.

For sure, and foreign policy isn't my thing, and I trust many folks on here more than I do my own opinion. Just going off a bird's eye view.

[izne1home]

Article in Economist:  Why Israel Must Fight On

Israeli forces are entering a hellscape of their own making. One in ten buildings in Gaza has been pulverised by Israeli aircraft and artillery. Over 8,000 Palestinians have been killed, many of them children. Shortages of fuel, clean water and food, imposed by an Israeli blockade, pose a growing threat to the lives of many thousands more.

Around the world the cry is going up for a ceasefire or for Israel to abandon its ground invasion. Hearing some Israeli politicians call for vengeance, including the discredited prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, many people conclude that Israel's actions are disproportionate and immoral. Many of those arguing this believe in the need for a Jewish state, but fear for a Jewish state that seems to value Palestinian lives so cheaply. They worry that the slender hopes for peace in this age-old conflict will be buried under Gaza's rubble.

Those are powerful arguments, but they lead to the wrong conclusion. Israel is inflicting terrible civilian casualties. It must minimise them and be seen to do so. Palestinians are lacking essential humanitarian supplies. Israel must let a lot more aid pass into Gaza. However, even if Israel chooses to honour these responsibilities, the only path to peace lies in dramatically reducing Hamas's capacity to use Gaza as a source of supplies and a base for its army. Tragically, that requires war.


To grasp why, you have to understand what happened on October 7th. When Israelis talk about Hamas's attack as an existential threat they mean it literally, not as a figure of speech. Because of pogroms and the Holocaust, Israel has a unique social contract: to create a land where Jews know they will not be killed or persecuted for being Jews. The state has long honoured that promise with a strategic doctrine that calls for deterrence, early warnings of an attack, protection on the home front and decisive Israeli victories.

Over the past two decades Israel lost sight of the fact that Palestinians deserve a state, too. Mr Netanyahu boosted Hamas to sabotage Palestinian moderates—a cynical ploy to help him argue that Israel has no partner for peace. Instead, Palestinian suffering became something to manage, with a mix of financial inducements and deterrence, kept fresh by repeated short wars.

On October 7th Hamas destroyed all this, including Mr Netanyahu's brittle scheme. The terrorists ripped apart Israel's social contract by shattering the security doctrine created to defend it. Deterrence proved empty, early warning of an attack was absent, home-front protection failed and Hamas murdered 1,400 people in Israeli communities. Far from enjoying victory, Israel's soldiers and spies were humiliated.

The collapse of Israel's security doctrine has unleashed a ferocious bombardment against the people of Gaza. The reason is an attempt to restore that founding principle. Israel wants its 200,000 or so evacuees to be able to return home. It wants to show its many enemies that it can still defend itself. Most of all, it has come to understand that, by choosing to murder Israelis regardless of how many Palestinians will die in Gaza, Hamas has proved that it is undeterrable.

The only way out of the cycle of violence is to destroy Hamas's rule—which means killing its senior leaders and smashing its military infrastructure. The suggestion that a war which entails the deaths of thousands of innocent people can lead to peace will appal many. In the past one act of violence has led to the next. That is indeed the great risk today.

However, while Hamas runs Gaza, peace is impossible. Israelis will feel unsafe, so their government will strike Gaza pre-emptively every time Hamas threatens. Suffocated by permanently tight Israeli security and killed as Hamas's human shields in pre-emptive Israeli raids, Palestinians will be radicalised. The only way forward is to weaken its control while building the conditions for something new to emerge.

That starts with new leadership for both sides. In Israel Mr Netanyahu will be forced from office because he was in power on October 7th, and because his reputation for being Israel's staunchest defender is broken. The sooner he goes the better. His successor will need to win a mandate for a new security doctrine. That should involve a plan for peace and reining in Israeli settlers, who even now are molesting and killing Palestinians on the West Bank.

The Palestinians need moderate leaders with a democratic mandate. At the moment they have none. That is partly because Mr Netanyahu boosted Hamas, but also because Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian authority, has sidelined potential rivals. The question is how to stop Hamas or its successor from seizing back control of Gaza before fresh leaders can emerge from fair elections.

Hence, the second condition for peace: a force to provide security in Gaza. Israel cannot supply it as an occupying power. Instead the strip needs an international coalition, possibly containing Arab countries that oppose Hamas and its backer, Iran. As we have argued in previous leaders, creating a coalition that all sides can agree on will take committed leadership from the United States and a leap of faith from the region.

And that leads back to the condition that makes all this possible: a war to degrade Hamas enough to enable something better to take its place. How Israel fights this war matters. It must live up to its pledge to honour international law. Not only is that the right thing to do, but Israel will be able to sustain broad support over the months of fighting and find backing to foster peace when the fighting stops only if it signals that it has changed. Right now, this means letting in a lot more humanitarian aid and creating real safe zones in southern Gaza, Egypt, or—as the best talisman of its sincerity—in the Negev inside Israel.

A ceasefire is the enemy of peace, because it would allow Hamas to continue to rule over Gaza by consent or by force with most of its weapons and fighters intact. The case for humanitarian pauses is stronger, but even they involve a trade-off. Repeated pauses would increase the likelihood that Hamas survives.

Nobody can know whether peace will come to Gaza. But for the sake of Israelis and Palestinians it deserves to have the best possible chance. A ceasefire removes that chance entirely.

[izne1home]